By now we are all learning to digest this concept. The coming years will be the hottest ever. In fact, you don’t have to be a climate scientist to realise that summer highs have been steadily increasing in recent years, and that heatwaves have always been stronger.
Here, now there is an extremely important study that states that, practically for sure (we are talking about a 98% probability) those between 2023 and 2027 will be the 5 hottest years ever.
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The WMO study and the 5 hottest years ever to come
The survey we refer to was carried out by the WMO, the World Meteorological Organisation. This is the intergovernmental organisation dealing with meteorology and comprising 191 member states and territories.
In short, we are talking about the most important global reference point for meteorological issues. The study in question, however, does not merely state that those between 2023 and 2027 will almost certainly be the five hottest years ever.
It goes further, delving into the problem from several angles. First of all, it explains why the next five years will be warmer. The continued rise in temperature will be driven by two factors.
On the one hand by human-induced global warming. And on the other hand by a new phase of El Niño. Namely, the periodic warming of the central and eastern tropical Pacific, which is known to be a natural phenomenon. Together, these two factors could lead us to exceed the 1.5 degrees predicted as the global warming ceiling since the Paris Agreement.
High probability of exceeding 1.5 degrees Celsius
The quantitative limit not to exceed in terms of climate change is, since COP21 in Paris, that of 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial times.
Here, the World Meteorological Organisation tells us instead that in the next five years, and thus by 2027, there will be a 66% probability of exceeding this threshold for at least one year. However, the exceeding of the dreaded ceiling will be ‘temporary’, and not permanent. Whereas the Paris Agreement speaks of a long-term exceeding.
What lies ahead will therefore probably not be the definitive crossing of the watershed identified by the scientific community in the field of climate change consequences. However, as Wmo Secretary General Petteri Taalas pointed out, ‘the World Meteorological Organisation is sounding the alarm. We will exceed the 1.5 degree level on a temporary basis with increasing frequency’.
And this means that the consequences of rising average temperatures will be increasingly evident and dramatic. While the rise in global averages does not automatically translate into increased temperatures in localised areas, there is an immediate increase in the energy contained in the atmosphere. Thus leading to increasingly extreme weather phenomena, between heat waves and droughts, between cold spells and exceptional bad weather.
Read also: Climate change: what areas of the world are most vulnerable to extreme heat waves
Are we expecting a super El Niño?
For some weeks now, there has been discussion in the world of international meteorology about the characteristics of the next El Niño. Which could be particularly strong.
As is well known, the last three years have seen the opposite phase. I.e. La Niña, with the surface temperature of the ocean with negative anomalies on the South American coasts, and with higher temperatures in the Western Pacific.
With El Niño, the opposite happens, leading to an increase in temperatures on a global scale. And as we have seen, it is precisely this natural cyclical phenomenon that has led the scientific community to state that the next five years will be the hottest ever. Especially since this new El Niño will probably be particularly intense. With its entry into play expected from August 2023.
Read also: Rising sea level, these are the cities that risk to disappear in a few decades
